by M K Venu
Economic Times Online (India), 15 November 2005
George
Orwell’s understanding of human beings as essentially oppressive and
hierarchical may have had something to do with his birth place —
caste-ridden Bihar!
Driving
through some of the most crime-infested parts of North Bihar in our quest to
fathom the mood of the Bihar electorate, one chanced upon a recently erected
memorial in a tiny village in east Champaran district, indicating the house in
which Orwell was born. Eric Arthur Blair (Orwell), was born to Richard Blair, a
British official managing opium trade in that region.
The plaque also mentions one
of Orwell’s most famous works Animal Farm, a stinging critique of
totalitarian and oppressive political systems in which some animals — in
this case pigs — are more equal than the others in the animal farm, a
metaphor for unequal
society.
Isn’t it a
delicious irony that the deeply caste-ridden and contentious politics of Bihar
somewhat resembles the picture painted by the late Orwell? For decades one set
of creatures — the upper caste — ruled Bihar. Pre-Laloo Yadav, the
upper caste dominated the undivided Bihar assembly with over 45% of the seats.
They kept all others out of
the power sharing arrangement. The tables have now been turned. Now the backward
castes together have over 40% and the upper caste representation in the assembly
is down to less than 25%. Indeed, the power equations have fundamentally changed
in Bihar’s animal farm!
Needless
to say, all this has had a profound impact on national politics too. The
equation is changing because there is a semblance of democracy through voting
rights, though in the Orwellian nightmare such a luxury did not exist. In purely
caste terms, the last four elections show candidates of the same caste being
elected in over 70% of the
constituencies.
Laloo Yadav has
been the king of the backwards — mainly Yadavs —for 15 years during
which he has ruled Bihar. But this time round the challenge to him from Nitish
Kumar, the Kurmi leader with a good image but a relatively narrow backward caste
base, is very real. The BJP has pulled all its weight behind Nitish with its
upper caste support base constituted by Brahmins, Thakurs and Bhumihaars. Nitish
is still a bit defensive about the fact that he is identified as one riding on
the support of the BJP.
Nitish
Kumar realises only too well that sharp polarisation along forward and backward
castes can still happen at the eleventh hour in north Bihar where polling is
still to be completed. The electorate of Bihar can deliver any verdict on the
voting day. No political leader is really sure whether Laloo’s misrule can
be the sole issue that will dominate the elections, overriding the all-important
caste factor.
Most opposition
leaders in Bihar are so wary of Laloo’s capacity to bounce back that they
are keeping their fingers crossed this time too. Nobody wants to hazard a guess,
and even wishful thinking in the anti-Laloo camp does not extend beyond the
feeling that “Nitish has a slight edge” over his rivals. This indeed
is a tribute to the Bihar electorate which keeps everyone on tenterhooks till
the very last minute. Even Sonia Gandhi who addressed a fairly large rally
outside Patna said she was not sure how much the crowds at meetings translate
into votes.
Expert watchers of
Bihar say the last phase of elections in north Bihar is very critical because
traditionally whoever wins in north Bihar rules in Patna. North Bihar also has
many constituencies with strong Yadav-Muslim populations and Laloo Yadav sees
them as his strongholds. The districts of Madhepura, Madhubani, Siwan,
Darbhanga, Gopalganj are Laloo’s traditional pocket boroughs in north
Bihar.
The
astute politician that he is, Laloo has been clever in publicising the fact that
he has empowered many leaders from the extremely backward castes (EBC) with plum
government and municipal posts in the past few years. Laloo did this just before
the last two phases of polling because in north Bihar the EBC category
constitute over 25% of the votes in many
constituencies.
Laloo’s
main message to the backward castes is that they must retain the voice and
dignity that they have got all these years by consolidating power under his
leadership. Nitish, on the other hand, seems to be saying that he is the right
backward caste leader who will give them both dignity and development.
The final outcome could be
just a slight variation on the results of last February. Laloo Yadav and allies
got about 89 seats whereas Nitish Kumar and allies got 93. Most poll watchers in
Bihar suggest Nitish and allies may get another 10 to 15 seats this time round
but will remain well short of a majority.
However, a significantly
better performance by JD(U)-BJP combine will certainly impact politics at the
Centre in the coming months. Opposition to the UPA at the Centre is bound to
gain momentum.
